Now let’s consider the venues for these cases: New York state court, U.S. This doesn’t include the state cases, which naturally he would have to avoid a conviction in both as well. To avoid a conviction in both cases, he’s got a. So based on the above data, without considering the merits of the cases, Trump has an 87% chance of conviction in one of the two federal cases. His entire schtick is that he’s innocent and being railroaded, and if he admits guilt that strategy goes out the window, so he’s never going to do that. If he pleads guilty to felonies, his campaign is dead. He’s going to trial because he’s not going to plead guilty beforehand. 98% didn’t, because 90% plead guilty and 8% had cases dismissed. ![]() He has 2 federal trials with a total of 44 charges and 2 state cases with a total of 47 charges. Federal cases that go to trial get 87% conviction rate. So I’ve made two claims to support this position: Trump is going to be convicted of felonies, and the voters are going to reject him because of it.Ĭlaim 1: Trump is going to be convicted of felonies. Given the timeline of the court cases which are designed to interfere with the election, Trump is going to be convicted of a variation of felonies prior to the general election. The independents however don’t like either candidate, and don’t want to vote for either. I don’t think it would have much effect on Democrats or Republicans-their opinions are set in stone. You might think things look fine now in a hypothetical matchup a year out between two well-known candidates, but what happens when Trump is convicted of his indictments? This would be like a grenade going off in the general election. Like it or not, the important thing is to win independents in a general election. This is the nature of a two-party system. Democrats who are dissatisfied with Biden are going to come home to vote against Trump, just as I came home to vote against Hillary in 2016. However, I don’t think the polls matter this far out from the general election, so I honestly don’t really give a damn how well he polls in a hypothetical matchup a year from now. People like to point to the polls to show the inevitability of Trump winning the Primary, and his strength against Biden in the general. My preference is DeSantis, but I would take any of the others over Trump because I desperately want to win the White House. I think he’s going to get skunked, and I don’t see why we are putting forth a candidate who is sure to lose when there are other alternatives who will win. I don’t think Trump can win the general election. And I think this is foolish, as there are numerous reasons not to support him (many of them can be debated in good faith), but this post is specifically aimed at one overriding reason: the indictments. I know many on Ricochet are beholden to Trump-they support him unquestioningly and will “go down with the ship”, whether out of loyalty to the man or to “what he represents”. He’s not the best candidate to push conservative ideals or win the general election for many reasons. ![]() Trump does not have my support in this primary. If he wins the nomination again, I will support him again, although with less enthusiasm. ![]() He was the best President of my lifetime going back to Reagan, and I supported him strongly in 2020. He governed far more conservatively than he ran. The Trump administration was a pleasant surprise. He wasn’t my first choice, but if every Republican only ever voted for their first-choice, outcome be damned, the Democrats would win every election. Even though I had strong doubts about Trump, I figured he was better for the country than the alternative and I voted for him. I was convinced to vote for Trump because I didn’t want to “cut my nose to spite my face”. I was convinced by this same wise man that there are only 2 political parties that can actually win, and therefore you are going to be governed by one or the other. My own Trump love/hate relationship is that I was against him before 2016 mostly because he wasn’t running a very conservative campaign and there were better, more conservative options available. So, I want to briefly explain my background before my argument so I can take any claims of being Never-Trump off the table. A wise man once said I want to know where you sit, before I know where you stand.
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